The Joel on Software Discussion Group (CLOSED)

Saw a post recently here which talked about more jobs getting outsourced to India etc...

Somehow I dont think the jobs are coming here either. A lot of outsourcing shops are shutting down here, a lot of them are not recruiting, a lot of them are laying off thier temp staff... it is been happening for some time.

People outsource jobs to cut costs, I think this time the recession it going to be the next level, there is no question of cutting costs.. they are not going to the project (that was going to be outsourced) itself.

A GLOBAL recession is growing.  Companies will do what it takes to save money.  Some may try outsourcing.  Some may just lay people off.  Some may try to use domestic temps that can be cut lose fast.

Experts agree that, at least in the US, this will end up being the worst recession decades.  The worst that most of us alive today have ever seen, but not as bad as The Great Depression.

I have read about India's problems since the finacial crash, as BPO was a huge part of their work load over there. Now that financial related industries are folding, it has affected India and others.

The problem with our field (IT) though, is so many companies are dependent on IT for survival. Its not like its an optional part of a company anymore. Thats why despite offshoring, IT unemployment in the US is still very low (only 2.5% compared to 6.1% due to the looming recession).

I disagree with the last person. I think this is a serious global problem unfolding, but unless the finacial system completing crashes and burns and we start trading bobbles as currency, allot of the business world continues to function and hold jobs and is going full steam. Where I live, insurance, commerce, tech, medical, universities, and other groups are going full steam now. Lots of jobs here and people hiring. Sure, 2009 will be vastly different coming up, but its mostly a banking meltdown and that has affected business process outsourcing and related financial services groups. But not everyone is tied to wall street's gluttony directly.

I think the people that tried to make quick money and over invetsed in realestate and stocks will suffer huge losses....like they should. But many smaller businesses chug along fine in this market and are growing. Even my mISV is making more money month to month right now.

China does IT cheaper.

Nah, China's starting to export to Vietnam and similar now. Same mechanism in effect, same resource and environmental pressures to combat ...

Anyone that thinks all this will end with banks doesn't understand economics.

Agreed. The current situation is, nobody is lending money, no matter what. This means companies have to keep an eye on cash flow, which means any project that isn't business-critical is being postponed. So, most of the jobs being cut are the interesting ones.

The stock market tends to lead recessions.  If the patern from the last 100 years holds true then the recession will be rather broad and deep.

If this was just a bank issue we wouldn't see Ford and GM in tail spins.

Ford was shit for quite a time.

Form and GM have been in trouble for years. The only thing propping them up (until recently) was SUV sales, which have naturally gone down the toilet.

As long as companies can't get money, this problem will continue. From what I've seen, companies are hiring (at least in the Bay Area), but a lot of them are holding back.

"Experts agree that, at least in the US, this will end up being the worst recession decades. "

True. However experts also agree that it won't be the worst recession in decades ;-]

Sophisticated econometric models have successfully predicted 14 of the last 3 recessions.

I am in China, my boss in USA, he keep hire engineer one after one, but he also worried something.