The Joel on Software Discussion Group (CLOSED)

I'm trying to present at a meeting how software piracy can help increase sales in the long term, by means of this argument:

http://www.methylblue.com/blog/software-piracy-not-always-bad/

I am unable to find a more formal or rigorus study of this. Does anyone know of one?

LJ

Not sure if this is strictly relevant, but Macrovision are doing some interesting stuff with games whereby a pirated game reverts to to a 'trial' or 'demo' mode.  The idea being that you get your product in front of people who are likely to buy it:
http://www.macrovision.com/products/activereach_games/activemark/index.shtml

There's an interesting historial perspective with regards to Microsoft here as well: http://talkback.zdnet.com/5208-10532-0.html?forumID=1&threadID=25911&messageID=488671&start=-9856

I suspect you're whistling in the wind looking for 'formal' studies if you don't intend to do your own. Even assuming your position could be proved, the people who are likely to have the funding and resources to do so are likely to be hurt by doing so.

And intercourse prevents pregnancy.  Cool.

LJ,

That essay you link to is making the wrong argument. It's saying that piracy can increase a product's sales because it potentially puts that product in front of more people. But with a free trial, you can put a product in front of just about anybody who's interested.

So the essay fails to point out how potential sales resulting from piracy are different to potential sales resulting from use of free trials. There might be a decent argument to suggest that piracy can be manipulated to benefit vendors, but that essay isn't it.

Well, but maybe a man WILL buy the cow, even AFTER he's gotten some milk for free.

Yup. Because when the cow wanders off, I want to claim ownership. When it gets sick, I want the vet to take care of it without needed shady operations. And when there's a problem with the milk, I want recourse from the Farmer, even if it's just suggested feeding tips.

And maybe, maybe I just really like the cow.

IF piracy does have a positive effect on sales (and it's a theoretical argument at best), it's only when there is a large user base already AND the software is of good quality. In any other case it's detrimental.

Another factor to consider is where there are "network effects" attached to usage of the software. That is, use of the software by one person makes it more likely that someone else will use it as well. The classic example is something like a word processor - if people start sending out documents  that require a specifc program to open, they may encourage others to purchase the software in order to open the document. So the pirate may never pay, but will drive adoption by others who may be willing to pay.

Od course, not all software exhibits a network effect, so YMMV.

There is a story that when one MS exec was complaining about piracy in one emerging market he was asked if he would prefer if they pirated Apple software instead. He blanched.

Piracy is in fact a mass free trial, with all the expenses paid by somebody else, and the added privilege that you can demonize those that do it for you.

Those hurt by piracy are rarely those that produce the software. The most pirated companies in the world are MS and Adobe, but the people pirating Office or Photoshop are not in the market for retail versions of their products. If piracy was not available they would use cheaper home user copies, or even OSS (it is no accident that the only software I can't buy for just above the price of the CD is Linux software).

And of course even those that buy legit copies should be grateful to the pirates. That you can buy OEM disks or get much software on 'student' licenses, is because of the competition of the pirates. But of course it makes many much smugger to attack piracy while benefitting from its activities.

Adobe was also encouraging piracy. Most people who pirate tend to skew younger and when all these kids graduating college came out into the workforce with 'years' of photoshop experience, companies would rather then go out and buy photoshop for them over Corel's offereing (or what may have you).