The Business of Software

This is bad enough when it's about the design of a program, but even worse when about marketing and choosing a product!  I have lots of business ideas, but of course they all have trade-offs (which should surprise no one).  It seems like there's a lot riding on picking the right product, market segment, competition, etc.  So I'm having great difficulty committing to an idea.

I believe that it's essential to just get started, so you can get the feedback loop going, and start making steering corrections based on customer feedback, changing revenue, etc.  I know it's impossible and undesireable to make a predictive plan upfront.  But getting over the inertia is tricky at first.

If your first product doesn't succeed:

1) How long do you wait before ditching it and trying something else?  If good software "takes 10 years", when can you decide it's not going to get there at all?

2) How hard is it to scuttle a product once you do decide to do something else?  Once you have customers, you have a responsibility to them.

Is this just run-of-the-mill self-doubt and cold feet?  How do you get past analysis paralysis?  Is it a "Just Do It" sort of thing?  I'm reminded of that guy at Microsoft who was famous for "Decisions in 10 minutes, or the next one is free!"  Guess I need to cultivate that attitude!

Thanks!

Can you do a "think tank?"  The order of your sentences suggests that you haven't talked to enough / any people about possibilities yet.  Won't take too much energy and $ to take prospective users to lunch and float something past them, and then see what kind of reaction you get.  This isn't a make-or-break point, but it's information you don't appear to have that may shift your thinking.

Dexterity article that might help:
http://www.dexterity.com/articles/shareware-amateurs-vs-shareware-professionals.htm

Dexterity articles are truely helpful. Read them all at dexterity.com. Plus Steve has a new website which has some good insights for setting goals, marketing from your heart etc.

Lastly, I'd say don't jump ship until your sales are relatively stable, you got a tangible customer base, etc. If you don't like having a fulltime job, that's fine, but you gotta pay the bills, so you'll need to do consulting, or a parttime job or whatever.. Being at home 24/7 is too much responsibility for some people.

My standard disclaimer...I have not even finished my product or sold a thing yet so ... what do I know...

I used to spend a lot of time in analysis paralysis.  I wanted to build a product but what?  This is a good idea, I think.  No, it's a great idea, I think.  No, it's a horrible idea, I think.

A few months ago a friend and I sat down and tried to wrestle these things to the ground.  Our initial step was to build up a list of software product ideas and see which one we liked best.  It wasn't long before our wiki was beginning to stack up with all kinds of ideas.  They ranged all over, a social site to hook up with people who have the same hobbies, a morningstar like site generated by the power of wiki.  I have also had an idea for a long time to create a website to allow IT people (or anyone for that matter) to report on companies they work for or interview with (skills they are looking for, positions open, work environment, etc.).  I still like that last idea best...not just the idea but the way I was thinking of implementing it.

There was one that my partner put on there, almost as an afterthough, basically it said "my wife could use this".  Wait!  What's this?  A customer.  And not just one customer because she associates and works with a lot of people in the same business.

Suddenly everything was different.  Is there a market?  Yes.  Are their honest to God potential customers I can talk to?  Yes.  Could they use this product?  Yes.  How do I know?  They tell me so and they encourage me to try.  And, this one is very important, will they pay for it?  Yes...if I can give them what they need.  Some of them are paying more for less right now.

I know now that if I fail to capture enough of this market to be successful it won't be because it isn't there.  To me that is significantly different from wondering if an idea has merit on its own.  I have not committed to an idea...I have committed to a customer and their needs.

Maybe I should be building the next Web 2.0 hot product but my problem with that is how do I know it will be that?  I would rather build something I know people need and will use.  Maybe it isn't as sexy but I am not doing this to make the cover of Wired.

Jesse, I think far too many people quit their idea too early.  As the example Joel gave, they spend a few months or a year creating something, announce it on BoS, buy some AdWords, and get maybe 3 sales, call it a wash and give up.  Whats the difference between FogCreek, 37Signals, etc.. versus a lot of the other companies that make similar (and even better) products?

They stuck around and marketed the hell out of their products.  From Joel's articles, its clear FogBugz wasn't paying anyone's salaries for the first couple of years, but now it's their cash cow.  If Joel had given up when the first months sales were exactly $348 it would be a different story.

Hopefully before you get/got started on your idea you talk to your target market and survey about who needs your product and how much they would be willing to pay for it.  If that marketplace is still valid, then your problem is marketing...you've already developed it, no reason to give up... just figure why it isn't be selling, and correct that problem.  Usually the reason are A) they havn't heard of it  B) It doesn't do the job as well as another product  C) It's too expensive  D) There really is no market for your product.  Only would scenario "D" be a complete give up the ghost scenario, and maybe "C" if its not economically feasible for you at the "right" price level.

Here is another fear related article:

http://www.dexterity.com/articles/from-slump-to-supercharged.htm

Or rather than read that huge article, just snap out of it.

"Or rather than read that huge article, just snap out of it.
Life's too short to read Pavlina"

Hahahah!

I had almost forgotten how great Steve Pavlina's early articles with Dexterity were.  He got a little weird in that last one, and I don't really read his new stuff - a little too "new-age" for me, I guess.  I think the polyphasic sleep stuff made me wonder about his credibility.

Here's the thing, Steve obviously made a ton of cash from Dexterity Software - good on him!  But when you're sitting on a cushion of cash, it's a lot easier to preach "nothing in this world can truly harm you" type messages, and it's easier to focus your life on "personal development" and blogging.  The rest of us schmoes have to worry about the opportunity costs of making bad decisions.

Still, his "amateurs vs pros" and "market research" articles are corkers!  There's good advice there about browsing through download.com and tucows to see what types of products have high download rates - I hadn't thought about that before.

> The rest of us schmoes

You shall remain one with that attitude!  :)

Heh, heh... yeah, maybe!  I suppose it is a case where I should just pick something and try to contact prospective customers to make sure I know what the key problems are.

There's a lot to be said for the ol' JFDI method!

Just make a table in Excel. List all the possible products as columns and all the success factor as rows (will it take long to do a first version, is it a big market, is there a lot of competition etc). Guess a number from 1 to 10 in each cell. Sum each column. Pick the product with the biggest sum. Apply a weighting to the rows if you want to get fancy. You get the idea.

By the way, why do you have to ditch a product before you work on another?

I'd say try as many different "potentially viable" project ideas as possible. The more you try, the more you increase your odds of success. I'd spend my time "trying" rather than thinking through "what-if" scenarios.

And while you wait for one product to come to fruitation after release, start working on another as time permits.

> Here's the thing, Steve obviously made a ton of cash
> from Dexterity Software - good on him!

I don't know how much he has in his bank account right now, but casual games business is no easy nugget to bite. Do you follow that industry at all? There is a TON of competition from all sorts of players. His income is no sure thing from that area.

> and it's easier to focus your life on "personal
> development" and blogging. 

I don't know about blogging, but "personal development" is not a separate part of your life that you pay attention to if you have "extra time". You need that to grow no matter what you do. If you are neglecting it, your opportunity cost of making that decision is rather huge.

> The rest of us schmoes have to worry about the
> opportunity costs of making bad decisions.

When you have millions of dollars you are missing out on, you can worry about that. Besides, while you are worrying and thinking, you are missing out as well. So, like you said yourself, just pick something, get going, do "fire.. aim.. ready.. fire.. aim.." and get cranking.