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* The Business of Software

Read this link and tell me what you think?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/11/29/AR2005112901096.html

I laughed when I saw "Web 2.0" and recalled Joel's memo about that phrase.

I personally think some nich services will go the way this article suggests.  As they state, look at Google. 

But I just can't see using software tools like autocad and video editing in a centralized fashion as this article suggests.

As a small business owner I was surprised I could use Quickbooks software and sync with an online account and do the same things via the web.  Interesting....

That is funny, Microsoft is going to release Web 2.0, so much for research before printing an article.

A good article and articulates a compelling vision of the future. Although he may be technically inept, it is likely the course of the technology.

Most of the guys look existing technologies and wonder how WEB 2.0 application match the graphics intensive capabilities of desktop applications (e.g. autocad).

New innovations would emerge from stealth mode starting first quarter. In a year you are going to see next generation graphics technologies, which make you wonder how desktop GUI technologies could match graphics intensive capabilities of future online applications.

Of course, many users prefer few applications, such as autocad and PPT as local applications and to store in local disks. They are only small portion and most of the information driven applications (many other include games, real-time simulation) are best server on the Internet. The ASP model (e.g. Salesforce.com) will achieve the stated “Economy of Scale that could Inspire Companies to Ditch IT Departments”.

Whole new customers base would emerge to gain strong foothold to eventually dethrone existing players. For example, Small and medium enterprises, mom-and-pop businesses, under computerized enterprises from the developing countries. Even many far flung divisions of fortune 2000 companies or for many non-core operational-automation that do not justify investment on a SAP installation. Google showed the power of “long tail” of advertisement.

Of course, this is good for software professionals. More technology penetration means more jobs, more opportunities for startups and uISVs.

The past:

centralised computing
centralised networked computing
distributed computing
distributed networked computing

The (alleged) future:

centralised networked computing


While the "future" may be a shiny implementation of old ideas, and isn't entirely without a few new ideas, the only reliable trend is shifting back and forth and occasionally adding new bits.

Just like the introduction of the PC didn't eliminate mainframes, when Microsoft releases Web 2.0 (hehe, that's cute - bloody idiot journalists) it won't eliminate mainframes, personal computers, the fat client, or the isolated application.

Hell, no amount of AJAX will eliminate the laws of physics that cause latency, so there's always going to be cases where it just doesn't hurt to write an app running on a PC.

I agree that PC's and servers will probably always be around for running applications, but I also think there are tons of people that only use their computer for the internet, email, etc.  And tons of people that would buy a machine, start using the internet, if they could just plug it in, turn it on, and just see the web.  I wish I could develop an operating system that was simply a browser and put it in a machine that was only memory and a processor and just plugged into the wall, very little disk space if any, and sell it for a $100 or less.  Hopefully it would be disposable to consumers over say a 6 month - 1 year period.

I've also thought it would be cool if you could run a browser off a jump drive and have simple machines with just a processer that you could plug into with the jump drive and have your own tailored system with a little bit of space for saving stuff.

Sorry for rambling, just brainstorming.  Like everyone else, I wish I knew what things were going to be like in 5 years!  All I know is it will be different at some levels and the same at others.